This Isn’t a Shockwave. It’s the New Normal.

For the past year, as rates have crept up, I kept telling myself this was just a shockwave, a temporary disturbance before things settled back down. I’m starting to think I had it backwards. This might just be where we live now.

So the real question isn’t “when will rates drop?” It’s “how do we find opportunity without trying to time a market that almost nobody times correctly?”

Spend five minutes around realtors and lenders right now and you’ll feel the panic in the air. Everyone’s leaning on the same line: “date the rate, marry the home.” I’ve heard it a hundred times, and honestly, I’m tired of it. It’s a clever soundbite, but it doesn’t tell you anything useful.

You don’t want to be sold a lie with sprinkles on top. You want the truth. So here it is, as best as I can give it: rates are not likely to drop meaningfully anytime soon. The 30-year fixed is sitting in the high-6% range right now, and most forecasts from Fannie Mae and the MBA have it hovering around 6.3-6.5% through the rest of the year. There was talk of a 50-year mortgage that might have eased monthly payments, but that idea has already stalled out in Washington. I wouldn’t count on relief from that direction either.

So what do you actually do with that?

Buyers are hesitant to commit to a monthly payment that’s higher than what the same house would have cost a few years ago. Sellers are stuck in the same bind, reluctant to give up a low rate they locked in years back. But I think we’re all looking at the problem the wrong way.

Here’s the shift I want you to make: most people treat their home as a stepping stone. Buy something decent now, sell in a few years, move up when the timing feels right. That’s not homeownership - that’s just renting from a bank with better tax treatment. And the data actually backs this up: homeowners today are holding onto their houses longer than at almost any point in the last 25 years, with a median tenure of 12 years. We’re already living the long-game version of homeownership, whether we plan for it or not.

So stop waiting for the “right” rate. Rates will move, and there will always be a reason to wait a little longer. Instead, focus on finding a home you can genuinely picture yourself in for the next 30 years, not just the next 5.

Yes, rates are rough right now. Yes, that changes what you can afford. But trying to out-guess the market usually just means missing the home you actually wanted while you waited for a number that may never come. The best move isn’t timing the market. It’s buying the home you’ll actually want to live in.